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20
Years From Now:
Two month ago, The Boeing Company released Outlook 2006 that shows the 20 years forecasting global market for New Airplane Markets. Airbus just released Global Market Forecast. It is very interesting the global market forecasting were almost similar report when I compared both. The Boeing Company forecasted the next 20 years will see an annual world economic growth rate of 3.1 percent, a passenger travel growth rate of 4.9 % and a freight growth rate of 6.1 percent. It is very similar report shows from the Airbus Company as well: Over the 2006 to 2025 period covered by this forecast, world passenger traffic is expected to increase by 4.8% per annum. This traffic growth, combined with fleet renewal, will require the delivery of 21,860 new passenger aircraft with more than 100 seats. (1) (2). The replacement of older airplanes with the newer airplanes shows the different numbers on both of their reports. The Boeing Company and the Airbus for Passenger and freighter deliveries worth about $2.6 trillion. The 22,663 new passenger aircraft and freighters that will be needed over the next 20 years are worth approximately $2.6 trillion at current list prices. The Boeing Company estimated the market will require 27,210 new airplanes, and the fleet will grow from 17,330 to 35,970 airplanes by 2025. New aircraft deliveries 2006-2025
Airbus predicts that passenger airlines will replace 12,071 aircraft during this period. Of these, 4,842 aircraft will be recycled back into passenger service, 2,777 will be converted to freighters and the remaining 4,452 will be permanently withdrawn from service. Overall, this means that the world’s airlines are forecast to take delivery of 22,663 new passenger and freighter aircraft over the next 20 years, equating to average annual deliveries of 1,133 aircraft. Airlines will also require nearly 4,000 smaller jets, with between 30 and 100 seats, to serve regional demand, especially in the USA and Europe. The world’s fleet, which includes both passenger (from 30-seater jets to very large aircraft) and freighter aircraft, will grow from 17,153 at the end of 2005 to nearly 33,500 by 2025. It
is predicting 1 in 5 aircraft deliveries in
next 20 years will be to emerging markets which is becoming
critical participants in major political, economic and social affairs.
The emergence of these economies is essentially
the result of their focus on education,
foreign investment and domestic consumption.
Brazil, Russia, India and
China (BRIC) are the largest emerging markets eventually becoming
the four most dominant economies by the
year 2050. The China comes first among
the emerging countries in the combined ranking of economic
growth and export growth which remind of me
that Looking back to year 2005, The Boeing Company projected $213 Billion Market for New Airplanes in China. The detailed forecasting information was given in 2005 Current Market Outlook (CMO) for the People’s Republic of China today, forecasting a requirement in China for just over 2,600 new airplanes worth $213 billion over the next 20 years. Over the forecast period, China is and will remain the largest market outside the United States for new commercial airplanes. Air travel for China’s carriers will expand significantly, led by the domestic market’s average annual growth of 8.8 percent. This incredible growth will nearly quadruple China’s airplane fleet over the next 20 years. Air travel for all markets to, from and within China is forecasted to grow 7.3 percent per year. (6) Airbus
Report shows that the Hub cities were remained as dominant between
Europe and the USA: More than 80% of the new transatlantic long-range
routes to have developed in the last decade are linked to one of these
10 cities like, London, New York, Frankfurt,
Paris, Chicago, Amsterdam, Washington, Los Angeles, Atlanta, and Boston
which this market is held up as a case study in new route development.
Now the report shows that Hub-to hub traffic is double in ten years.
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